By Johnny MendezLet me be the thousandth person to wish you a Happy New Year! Now that that’s out of the way, here are five things I’m keeping a close eye on in 2026:
Portable Mortgages: Industry leaders are actively exploring the concept of being able to take your current mortgage rate with you on your next home purchase. This could unlock a massive amount of inventory from sellers who feel handcuffed to their current property because of historically low interest rates.
Interest Rates: Rates are forecasted to trend downward in 2026. Will they return to 2021 levels? Almost certainly not for a very long time. They currently sit around 6.2% for a conventional mortgage, and while estimates differ, even a dip into the mid to high 5% range would offer a nice bump in affordability for millions of potential buyers across the country. Mortgage rates change daily, almost like a stock price.
**If you'd like to track them in real time, let me know and I will send you the tool I use.
Capital Gains Taxes: Currently, if you sell your primary residence, you are exempt from capital gains tax up to $250k as a single filer and $500k if you are married. There are conversations about increasing that exemption to incentivize owners who are sitting on a lot of equity to list their homes for sale. I have multiple clients who have told me they would call me tomorrow to list if this actually goes through.
More Inventory: Real estate moves slowly compared to other markets, like stocks or crypto. It takes time for higher rates and lower affordability to work through the system. We are finally starting to feel those effects. Listings are sitting longer, and sellers are more willing to offer incentives to attract buyers. Combined with other trends I am watching, I expect buyers to have more negotiating power and more choice in 2026.
Modest Price Growth: Multiple-offer situations still exist, but they are much more property specific. With rates in the 6 percent range, which is actually historically average, and affordability compressed, there is some downward pressure on prices that did not exist a few years ago. Do not expect a crash. If prices rise only a few percent or stay flat this year, and buyers can get help from sellers with things like closing costs and repairs, I would call that a win and a sign we are returning to a more normal market.
This is my eighth year in real estate , and I am more prepared than ever to help as many people as I can this year. I hired an assistant and have invested heavily in systems and time management, all to give you the best experience possible.
Thank you for trusting me as your advocate in the real estate space. I write these emails myself. They are not AI generated and never will be. You can expect more value than ever from me this year. If there is anything I can ever do for you, just reach out. I love what I do and am a firm believer in relationships over transactions.